No, not the classic 1983 movie with Matthew Broderick and Allie Sheedy...
This is what's been keeping me up all day.
It's called President Forever. It's an election simulator. And it's very detailed, and very realistic. I'm talking barnstorming, spinning news story, policy speeches, recruiting footsoldiers, advertising, endorsements, the works. If you're a politics junkie like me, the hell with WarCraft and Everquest and Grand Theft Auto. You're playing this. (It does cost $12, but it is well worth the price!)
And so, I've been wargaming the upcoming election using its extremely customizeable interface. (I've had to make some modifications, though, such as increasing George Bush's campaign chest to $200 million, and upping his debating skill...I mean, he did trounce Gore in all three debates in 2000. Likewise, I've made similar changes on the Democratic side, such as giving them boosts in Charisma and upping their warchest to between $150 and $180 million, which in reality will depend on how vicious the primary fight gets and how quickly the DNC can start fundraising after the nomination is locked up. No matter how much they try, though, they will not reach parity with the DNC. )
So after a few games of trying to figure out the interface, I've done five simulations between a relatively even Bush/Cheney ticket for the Republicans, and two different Democratic tickets: Kerry/Edwards and Kerry/Dean (Edwards will be Kerry's preferred VP, as he can get him inroads in the south and give him a much needed boost of Charisma. If the primary season drags out, and Dean is still able to keep drawing delegates away from Kerry by strong 2nd place finishes, though, Dean will get the VP slot as the Dems will figure it's the quickest way to heal the split within the party.)
Out of the five simulations, Bush/Cheney won all five. (Three vs. Kerry/Edwards (KE) and two vs. Kerry/Dean (KD).)
Here's the result breakdowns, in order from closest to most lopsided.
1. Vs. KE - 277/538 electoral votes, 46% of vote
2. Vs. KE - 289/538, 47%
3. Vs. KD - 294/538, 48%
4. Vs. KD - 392/538, 51%
5. Vs. KE - 413/538, 54%
Based on my limited data sets, there are two things Bush must do in order to keep things from being close (or even losing).
1. He MUST win a majority of the debates, if not all of them. Winning debates gives you incredible national momentum. Gaffes in debates are bad news.
2. He MUST be competive, or preferably win, in California. If he wins, the 55 electoral votes will provide enough of a cushion to assure him victory. But if he can keep the vote within 5%, he can force the Dems to expend resources in CA to keep from getting ahead elsewhere. (Yes, I know what George Will had to say on the subject.) But if Bush's amnesty proposal attracts a good chunk of the Hispanic vote, and if Schwarzenegger keeps kicking ass in Sacramento and solving the budget mess, it could be done. (On this last point, I write this as I watch Conan the Barbarian on TNT.) Failing in California, Bush must win at least three of the following states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Michigan.
Bottom line (A.K.A. "The Brutal B:") Things are looking up for Bush, but it's going to be a hard fight. If he opens up with both barrels like he did for Congressional Republicans in 2002, he will win. How much he will win will depend on how many mistakes Kerry et. al. makes. As Sun Tzu says, "Invincibility is in oneself, vulnerability is in one's opponent."
I'm even going to break my own rule and allow y'alls to post comments on this thread. Let me know what modifications you make to make things more realistic, what simulations you run, what your results are, and most importantly, what works and does not work for each ticket.
UPDATE 2/3/02 1:00 PM: Just ran another vs. Kerry/Dean. Added in a Nader Green Party ticket for giggles. Results: 387/538 Electoral votes, 53% of popular vote.
Let me add a state-by-state breakdown of this sim:
Bush: NH, RI, PA, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL,AL, MS, LA, AR, MO, KY, IN, MI, WI, MN, IA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, NM, AZ, UT, CO, WY, MT, ID, WA, NV, CA, AK
Kerry: ME, VT, MA, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, OH, TN, IL, OR, HI.
Dumping a good chunk of my resources in California probably cost me Ohio and Tenessee. But 55 is still more than 31 (55 for California, versus 20 for Ohio plus 11 for Tennesee), so I still came up ahead. Add to that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington state, and it was no contest. (Also, Nader ended up with 14% of the popular vote in Ohio. Don't ask me how.)
I'm going to start wargaming playing as Kerry next. We'll see what happens.
UPDATE 2-3-02 6:30 PM. Well, as it turns out, my first time playing as Kerry/Dean against Bush/Cheney did not turn out so well. Result: Kerry Loss (Bush 368/570 electoral votes, Kerry 170/570.)
State by State:
Kerry: VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, FL, OR, CA.
Bush: Everything else.
Problems:
1. Kerry had a debating skill of 4, even with Bush's. Problem is, I let Kerry's debate skills slide (too much campaigning). Bush trounced me in all three debates. Bye Bye Momentum.
2. Dean added nothing to the ticket except a bit of a leadership boost. If Kerry wants to go beyond his Northeast/Rust Belt/West Coast base, he will need to get Edwards.
3. I figured if Bush/Cheney could pull a California gambit, I could try a Southern gambit (i.e. FL, AR, VA). Big mistake. Won Florida. Lost everything else, plus what should be solidly Democratic territory (NJ, MD, IL, and HI.) Maybe it would have worked if Edwards was the running mate. I'll try that next.
4. Since I wanted to simulate the palpable hatred the Democrats have for Bush, all my ads were attack ads. Horrible, horrible mistake. 2/3 of them backfired and got me negative press. I also played the ads too conservatively, concentrating only on the marginal states to pick up votes, neglecting my base states. I had about 1/3 of my warchest left over at the end.
Lessons:
1. Do not underestimate Bush in debates.
2. Dean is bad news.
3. Stay the hell out of the South. (Maybe Edwards can go where Kerry can't.)
4. Negative ads = DOOM!!! (Did you hear that, Moveon.org? Or shall I turn it up for you?)
Of course, not like the Dems don't know these things already (though I do not discount the possibility of willful ignorance). I'll see how the next one goes.
UPDATE 2-4-03 2:00 AM: Tried Kerry/Edwards against Bush/Cheney. Still lost (248/538 votes) but getting better. Stayed positive, even won a debate. But, close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and nuclear weapons. Southern strategy fared better (Edwards?). Managed to hold on to West Virginia, Louisiana and Mississippi, as well as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the West Coast. If only Bush hadn't gotten to Ohio and Pennsylvania first. Closed the window before I could do the state-by-state, though. I guess that means it's bedtime.
Posted by Thief at February 1, 2004 05:16 AM